Posted by: thescoundrel | January 4, 2008

Huckabee and Obama Win Big in Iowa, Ron Paul Performance was Lackluster


It was Huckabee for the Republicans and Obama for the Democrats in the 2008 Iowa caucuses. I think the biggest surprise for both of them was the amount of votes that they won by. The next few primaries will tell the tale of their authenticity as lead candidates. And though the Iowa totals will not make or break any candidate from the overall race, it probably will further weaken some of the candidates like Biden, Richardson and Hunter that had poor showings. Another candidate’s position that was further weakened, was Ron Paul. Ron Paul received ten percent of the Republican vote. That is not an insignificant total, but with Paul’s seemingly huge Internet following and impressive cash totals flowing into his campaign, I would have expected him to show up with better than ten percent. His followers are some of the most active on the web in advocating his campaign. This poor showing would seem to validate some of the media and blog complaints that the Ron Paul supporters flock to their sites in numbers that causes distortion in poll total validity and create artificially pro-Paul comments sections. This showing by no means will stick a fatal pin puncture in the Ron Paul dirigible – but if the vote totals stay similar over the next couple of primaries – it would seem that the Ron Paul movement is more mirage than substance!

Advertisements

Responses

  1. Iowa was not expected to be a big winner for Dr. Paul. We had hoped -and got- double digit ranking. We are thrilled!

  2. Ron Paul does better in Iowa Caucus than in the Iowa Polls

    As of this writing, Paul is at 10% with 96% of precincts reporting.

    Here are the final Iowa poll numbers for Ron Paul from various pollsters:

    [www.realclearpolitics.com]

    LA Times/Bloomberg 1%
    Strategic Vision 4%
    Mason-Dixon 5%
    American Research Group 6%
    Rasmussen 6%
    Insider Advantage 7%
    CNN 8%
    Quad City Times 8%
    Des Moines Register 9%
    Zogby 10%

    [Average = 6.4%]

    If these poll numbers were inverted, showing Ron Paul polling at between 19% and 10% in every poll, just imagine the effect on how much media coverage Ron Paul would get? Just imagine how often Ron Paul would be called a contender, rather than a factor or spoiler? Just imagine how many $2300 dollar donors would believe Ron Paul had a chance to win?

    Ron Paul did not do as well as I predicted in Iowa. But he did up to 9% better than some of the polls predicted, and, overall, about 1.5 times better than the polls predicted.

    Ron Paul has the money and organization to run an aggressive 50 state campaign. The same cannot be said of the other GOP candidates.

    PS – the statistical margin of error in a poll where someone is polling at 10% or less is, typically, about 1%. Every single poll except Zogby was off by twice the margin of error. Since the statistical margin of error is a 95% confidence interval, the probability of poll being off by two margins of error is 400 to 1. Eight of the ten polls cited above were off by at least two margins of error. This is basically impossible, and proof that the polls were rigged in advance.

    Formula for margin of error:

    If you are polling at P% and the stated Margin of error of the poll is M%, the stated M% is only valid when P% = 50%

    Let R% = the real margin of error

    Then R% = [(P%)(1 – P%) x M%]/2500

  3. […] tnr1.com wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptAnother candidate’s position that was further weakened, was Ron Paul. Ron Paul received ten percent of the Republican vote. That is not an insignificant total, but with Paul’s seemingly huge Internet following and impressive cash totals … […]

  4. I think the key thing to keep in mind is that Huckabee is takes the entire ignorant, religious vote, whereas people who favour smaller government and liberty can permissable vote for McCain, Paul or if they are a little slower Rommney or Thompson. Therefore “actual conservatives” are splitting thier votes four ways. If you put Ron Paul up againgst any two other candidates, gave him equal media time these results would be very different. If and when Ron does even better in New Hamshire and his percieved electability increases things will change.

  5. It takes independants to win the general and Paul received 29% of independent GOP voters. McCain received 23 percent of independents GOP votes, Romney 19 percent, and Huckabee 17 percent.

    Moderate GOP voters can still fight to elect Paul and have a chance in November. I hope this Iowa GOP infection is not an epidemic.

    From Andrew Sullivan:

    “Now look at how the caucus-goers defined themselves in the entrance polls:

    Dems:
    Very Liberal: 18 percent
    Somewhat Liberal: 36 percent
    Moderate: 40 percent
    Conservative: 6 percent.

    Now check out the Republicans:
    Very Conservative: 45 percent
    Somewhat Conservative: 43 percent
    Moderate: 11 percent
    Liberal: 1 percent.

    “One is a national party; the other is on its way to being an ideological church. The damage Bush and Rove have done – revealed in 2006 – is now inescapable. “

  6. Did Paul come out ahead of Giuliani ? I think this put Paul in 4th place (depending on how you interpret a tie)
    So…does this mean the Paul will take Giuliani’s place in the controversial Fox debate that is scheduled before the New Hampshire primary?
    Doubt it.

    “Fair and Balanced”
    “we report, you decide”
    “wink, wink”

    The media in this country is unquestionably unbiased. (wink, wink)

  7. Besides Huckabee and Romney, Ron Paul was the only Republican candidate to win an entire county. The name of that county is Jefferson, appropriately enough, since Paul has been called the Thomas Jefferson of our time. Also of note is the fact that in five other counties, Osceola, Pocahontas, Van Buren, Mitchell, and Davis, Paul got more votes than Romney.

    If this contest had been held a few weeks ago when Paul was at 2%, Romney would have gotten more than twelve times as many votes, instead of only getting somewhat more than twice as many. Elections are often compared to horse races, and it is thrilling to see a certain dark horse closing in this fast on the front runners, as we get close to the finish line!

  8. Several interesting takes on the voting but I do not see Paul winning. I am not even sure my preference, Huckabee, can win the nomination despite his coming in first in Iowa. Huck lacks the funds to compete with the money machines when they hit the big delegate states. What he did get, that Ron Paul did not, was that Huckabee now has verifiable momentum. Paul did not get that in Iowa. His showing was respectable but not momentous. Take Obama, now his showing was momentous. He drew new voters to bolster his campaign. Those new voters rejected Clinton and Edwards. Like Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan, Obama has shown his presence in the race as a celebrity type image that is drawing young voters and winning over enough older voter converts that makes him look tough to beat. Paul only shows that kind of image on the Internet and it is up to his followers to prove to the country it will carry over to the election. Paul still lacks the type of momentum that will make him the real deal in this election. He still has plenty of time to build it, but with the larger states jacking around with the primary voting order it has damaged the timeline for underdogs, like Paul, have to prove themselves worthy of consideration. He has a lot of baggage to overcome with his acceptance of the “9-11 truthers” movement that has attached itself to his campaign. That will kill off much support he could have received from within the Republican Party regulars. Independents are a non factor unless they are registering as republicans to vote in a primary. That means he needs to bring in more new Republican voters, like Obama has in the democrat party, if he really hopes to compete. Paul did not prove that he could do that in Iowa. That is why a showing of ten percent is not notable for Paul in this Iowa election.

  9. […] thescoundrel created an interesting post today on Huckabee and Obama Win Big in Iowa, Ron Paul Performance was …Here’s a short outline […]


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Categories

%d bloggers like this: