Posted by: thescoundrel | January 7, 2008

A Super-Secret Knockout Blow for Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani?


As I have been watching the campaigns unfold the two original frontrunners seem to be fading fast. Rudy Giuliani, though a fiscal conservative, is still a social liberal, so I expected him to have some problems with a lot of the Republican electorate. But Hillary Clinton had such a lead and so much momentum going into the primary, I find it hard to believe that she is struggling so much, despite her well known “I stand for whatever the group that I am talking to today – believes in” history. It is evident that she does not have the same quality of Teflon protective coating that Bill Clinton wears. Especially since most of her problems have been self-inflicted. If there was ever a case of a frontrunner sprinting away from the pack that should have refused to debate except on her own terms, it is Hillary Clinton. She should have said it’s my empty lot and if you want to play a game on it with me, we play by my rules. I think she would have done less damage to her campaign if she had just said; hey I have a huge lead – if you want we can have one debate or none, on my terms. Not that her campaign is over and dead. Despite the current “Gloom and Doom” appearance of the campaign there are a lot of delegates left to get. And if the articles are right she probably can lose a lot of voting delegates and still win the Democrat nomination capitalizing on the super-delegate factors. She already has a “theoretical” 100-delegate, through super-delegates already aligned with her, despite losing in Iowa, before any votes are even cast in NH. You also have to figure Bill and Hillary Clinton have enough party clout to lay claim to a majority of the 842 super-delegate votes available, which account for about 40% of the delegates needed to win the nomination. And though the Republicans do not have super-delegates they do have 469 unpledged delegates, the amount determined by a programed process, that could sway the vote to the candidate that can woo them in a close race. Russell Berman summarized the unaligned votes in the NY Sun this way:

On the Democratic side, a candidate must win about 2,200 delegates to get the majority needed to secure the nomination. While most of the delegates are bound to the winner of a state primary or caucus, about 850 are party leaders and elected officials known as superdelegates, who are not bound to any candidate. In a CBS News survery last month, Senator Clinton led in superdelegates by a two-to-one margin over her nearest rival, Senator Obama. But surveys of superdelegates at this stage are seen largely as a reflection of the national polls and swing quickly.

Republicans have 469 unpledged delegates out of a total of nearly 2,400. A candidate must win a majority of all the delegates to capture the nomination. In the event that the party enters its convention without a nominee, each state has different rules governing how quickly delegates can switch to another candidate. Some specify that delegates must stick with their pledged candidate through one or two ballots, while others say that a delegate must hold as long as a candidate maintains an “active campaign.”

And though I have not seen how the candidates are leaning, I would guess many of the Republican group are leaning towards Rudy Giuliani since he was the sweetheart choice of the prom before the primary started. Though no one has yet handed him a corsage to seal the date. That would fit with Rudy’s plan of skating through the early small state primaries and concentrating on the bigger states. You have to figure both Hillary and Rudy know of inside information that tells the exactly how many supposedly unaligned delegates are already aligned with their campaigns. Those huge blocks of votes could be a knockout punch in a close race. I guess you could call it the “Smokin’ Joe Frazier” style of campaigning, throw your punches –> take a lot of bodyshots and headshots –> pray you don’t get rope-a-doped –> while you wait for the knockout punch opening to present itself. Of course relying on unaligned votes could also backfire if the “unaligned” delegates see a sinking ship and desert for a more buoyant ship to ride.

On a way out in the bleacherbum section, I just don’t see at $7.95 for a Huckaburger to be a franchisable product in the Midwest.  We are too frugal for an $8.00 burger, besides Blago would find a way to tax it to fund his push to get illegal immigrants a drivers license.

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Responses

  1. Obama would slaughter Rudy…. no contest…

    REf calls it before it begins

  2. […] Here’s another interesting post I read today by Samaritans Scalawags Scoundrels & Fleecing the Sheep […]

  3. Considering the lead changes that have happened already, the unaligned delegates in the primaries, the electoral votes in the national election I would not count this race won by anyone until the final delegate and electoral counts are finished.

    I would say, please –> keep your Underdog super-energy pills away from Fred Thompson. I do no think his body could handle the strain.

  4. Update on the race. Since the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is not allowed to vote in the USAmerian POTUS campaign, have they made their preference for Hillary Clinton known with a naval message of support?

    To my knowledge this link has absolutely nothing to do with Hillary, Rudy or the whole screwy election but if the people in the photo are still alive God must love them a whole lot!

  5. […] post by Samaritans Scalawags Scoundrels & Fleecing the Sheep and software by Elliott Back This entry is filed under Latest news update. You can follow any […]

  6. […] thescoundrel placed an observative post today on A Super-Secret Knockout Blow for Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani?Here’s a quick excerpt […]


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